U.S. Business travel may loss US$20 billion

If the U.S. economy falls over the ?fiscal cliff,? it would have an immediate and severe impact on U.S. business travel, according to new research from the Global Business Travel Association Foundation (GBTA).

The new report analyzes the business travel impact of expiring tax cuts and automatic spending reductions ? commonly referred to as the ?fiscal cliff? ? as well as the longer-term ramifications of leaving current levels of deficit spending unaddressed.

The report models the potential business travel impact of two scenarios ? one in which the fiscal cliff takes effect, and one where no changes are made to current tax and spending provisions.

Fiscal Cliff Scenario: If the fiscal cliff occurs, the U.S. economy would enter a recession. This would lead to a total loss of $20 billion in spending on U.S. business travel over the next nine quarters ? a 2.5% decline ? and a reduction of 32 million business trips.

However, the elimination of tax cuts and reductions in federal spending would lead to reduced deficits and lower interest rates over the long run, resulting in business travel spending and an overall economy that grows more quickly after absorbing the shock of the fiscal cliff.

No Fiscal Restraint Scenario: If all provisions of the fiscal cliff are eliminated or delayed indefinitely, business travel would experience more robust trip volume and spending as a result of stimulus from lower tax rates and continued government spending. In the near term, this scenario would lead to a cumulative loss of only 300,000 business trips and a gain of $5.5 billion in total business travel spending over the next nine quarters.

However, by 2014, much of the spending growth would be attributed to higher inflation. Larger budget deficits and growing debt will begin to take a toll, and business travel spending growth would continue to slow beyond the forecast horizon.

?Given business travel?s indispensable role in spurring economic growth, these findings dramatically illustrate the potential impact of the fiscal cliff on the overall economy,? said Joseph Bates, vice president of research at the GBTA Foundation. ?Falling over the cliff would set back the clock substantially for business travel and every other sector of the economy in the near term.

?This research shows that we must seriously consider both the near-term ramifications of the fiscal cliff and the long-term implications of expanding government debt,? said Michael W. McCormick, GBTA executive director and COO. ?Either way, the fiscal cliff is a wake-up call for leaders looking to craft smart economic policy going forward.?

The research, GBTA BTI? Outlook ? United States Special Report: Fiscal Cliff Scenario, was conducted through an analysis and econometric model used in the quarterly GBTA BTI? Outlook ? United States report and altered to reflect predictions in business travel spending and volume according to each of these potential outcomes.

Source: http://www.ftnnews.com/other-news/19110-us-business-travel-may-loss-us20-billion.html

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'Date set' for Japan elections

Japanese parliamentary elections have been tentatively set for December 16, media reports said on Thursday after Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged to dissolve the parliament by Friday if the opposition agreed to key reforms.

Mr Noda's pledge, made during a heated parliamentary exchange with Liberal Democratic Party chief Shinzo Abe on Wednesday, drew protests from some lawmakers within his own party who are not keen to face a vote at a time when the economy is ailing and public approval ratings for Mr Noda's Cabinet have fallen below 20%.

At least two members of the Democratic Party of Japan announced they would quit the party following the decision to dissolve the lower house, which would bring on elections.

Japanese media reported that party leaders had tentatively chosen December 16 as the date for the elections. The Cabinet office said the date could not be officially set or confirmed until after Mr Noda dissolves parliament.

Under the Japanese constitution, general elections must be held within 40 days after that point.

The pledge to call elections highlights the gridlock that has paralysed Japanese politics for years, hindering progress to revitalise an economy on the brink of recession and revamp government finances to cope with a fast-ageing population.

An election would also be a distraction at a time of acute antagonisms with China over a territorial dispute that have hurt Japanese exports to one of its biggest markets.

In recent days, Mr Noda has said he would push for Japan to negotiate various free-trade arrangements that many in Japan see as vital for reviving its stagnant economy. However, like other recent leaders, he appears to have run out of time: Japan has seen six prime ministers in the past six years.

"There's a real failure of leadership. That's in part because Japan's expectations for leadership are unrealistic. But also because the quality of leadership in Japan is really low," said Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University.

The LDP has been pushing Mr Noda to make good on a promise to call elections soon, but he has said lawmakers must first carry out reforms needed to make the vote constitutional. Those reforms would include shrinking the size of the lower house of parliament. Mr Noda said the legislature would also have to approve an urgently needed deficit financing bill.

Source: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/date-set-for-japan-elections-16238072.html?r=RSS

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Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

Source: http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/reuters/INgolf/~3/w4sn0LU7tgU/golf-european-scores-idINISS13268520121115

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Massey University's Vet School, Equine Center on Display for Royal Visit

Massey University's veterinary expertise and equestrian facilities will be on display when Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, visits the Manawatu, New Zealand, campus on Thursday (Nov. 15) afternoon. The royal visit is part of Prince Charles and Camilla's Pacific tour, celebrating the Queen's Diamond Jubilee year.

Deputy Vice Chancellor and College of Sciences Pro Vice-Chancellor Robert Anderson, ONZM, MAgrSc, PhD, DDA, along with University Chancellor Russell Ballard, CNZM BAgrSc MAgrSc PhD, FNZIM, and Palmerston North Mayor Jono Naylor, will welcome her.

Anderson says the Duchess' visit reflects her particular interest in animal welfare, and highlights Massey's strengths in areas of equine research, veterinary teaching, animal health, and specialist wildlife rehabilitation. "I have no doubt she will be impressed by the leading edge work we are doing in teaching and research particularly with New Zealand wildlife and horses," he said.

Institute of Veterinary, Animal, and Biomedical Sciences head Frazer Allan, BVSc, MACVSc, PhD, PGDip BusAdmin(Dist), will lead a tour of Massey's veterinary teaching hospital--New Zealand's only veterinary school--where Camilla will meet staff and students working with companion animals and native wildlife.

Plans for the $75 million upgrade and extension of the school will be discussed and Brett Gartrell, BVSc, PhD, MANZCVS, will share insight into the work of specialist wildlife veterinarians at Wildbase, where injured and sick native and endemic species are treated and rehabilitated. Camilla will have an opportunity to view a female kiwi being treated at the hospital.

Finally, at the University's Equestrian Center, she will be hosted by Assistant Vice Chancellor and University Registrar Stuart Morriss. She will see a show jumping clinic run by elite coach and former New Zealand Olympian John Cottle for Team Massey riders. The riders include education student Chloe Akers and science graduate Helen Bruce, who were part of the New Zealand Universities team that won bronze at the World University Equestrian Games in Germany in August. Other riders are sport and exercise student Caitlin Pemberton and veterinary science student Olivia Gibson.

The equestrian centre, opened in 2003, can accommodate up to 40 horses. It attracts top riders to study at Massey and supports the Bachelor of AgriScience Equine major, the only equine degree in New Zealand.

Source: http://feeds.thehorse.com/~r/TheHorse/News/~3/FsMk2oQnlFU/30865

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Spotify Is Testing a Web Player That We'll Probably See Next Year

If you've been looking for a way to stream Spotify tracks without having to use the standalone app, that day may come sooner than later: Spotify has confirmed with us that they have begun testing the feature with a small audience. More »

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/BP53QkZ-lLU/spotify-is-testing-a-web-player-that-well-probably-see-next-year

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Iraq says Exxon to quit oilfield, ends Turkey TPAO deal

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/exxon-tells-iraq-wants-quit-west-qurna-oilfield-084707123--finance.html

peyton

Odds Go Up for Mortgage Mods Post Election

This man is Christopher DeMarco. He?s the acting head of the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA). He?s going to lose his job in the next six weeks.

Democrats want to go back to the good old days when Fannie and Freddie were tools of both the Congress and the Administration. The Dems want the D.C. mortgage agencies to write off all underwater loans. The goal is to socialize the losses that borrowers are faced with.

DeMarco has been under attack by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party for the better part of a year. Democrats have wanted debt relief for underwater homeowners. DeMarco?s job as the head of the FHFA is to ?minimize taxpayer losses at Fannie and Freddie?. As a result, he has a conflict with broad based principal reductions. ?Very Important People?, like Paul Krugman, have been attacking De Marco for months.

The reason that DeMarco is still standing is that he has clout behind him in the form of the Senior Senator from Alabama, Republican, Richard Shelby.

With the election over, Obama doesn?t have to play Washington politics any more. He can afford to piss off powerful guys like Senator Shelby. And that?s exactly what he is going to do.

Sometime between Christmas and New Year?s, Obama will fire DeMarco, and he will make an executive appointment to replace him. Whoever is the new boss at FHFA on January 1, will have clear orders on what to do. A hallmark of Obama?s second term will be wide scale mortgage debt relief.

The driving forces to kick DeMarco out (and get a pro-principal modification guy/gal in) has been these two Congresspersons:

This outcome is reminiscent of 2006, when another (very) liberal Democrat was calling the shots at Fannie and Freddie. Back then it was Barney Frank. We know how that worked out. It won?t end up any different with Waters and Cummings pulling the strings.

What will a principal mod plan look like? I think it will be targeted to the bottom end. Mortgages with a principal balance of less than $150,000 will get the greatest relief. Little, or no relief will be granted to those with mortgage debt over $500K. The individual mortgage restructurings will happen over the next two years. The timing will be driven around the next election. The payoff for the liberal democrats will be a shot at taking back the House in 2014.

Obama will announce who will be the next Treasury Secretary by the end of the month. Look for a confirmation of a coming debt relief plan from this appointment. If the appointee has a history of supporting debt relief, then DeMarco?s days are numbered. That?s too bad for America. He has done a good job.

The cost of a mortgage-mod-plan starts at $100Bn. It could go as high as $300Bn. That doesn?t matter at all. Bernanke will just print the money.

Source: http://wallstreetpit.com/97727-odds-go-up-for-mortgage-mods-post-election/

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